The penetration rate of 1.5g mobile phone exceeded the expectation, and two major selling points led to the trend of replacement
5g mobile phone penetration is expected to exceed expectations: TSMC's Q4 5g chip production in 2019 is expected to exceed expectations, and 5g chips will gradually penetrate into low-end mobile phones. TSMC will further increase capital expenditure and expand advanced process capacity. 5g mobile phone industry chain RF, storage, PCB, cooling, antenna, baseband and and other links will fully benefit, arvr, Internet of things, cloud games, Internet of vehicles and other industrial applications will usher in rapid growth.
Two selling points of 5g mobile phone in 2020: 5g communication capability and photo optical function. In 2020, Galaxy S11 and Huawei P40 Pro will bring a wind vane to the industry. With the progress of long focus quality and advanced image processing technology, mobile photography has made great progress in 2019. For example, telephoto and / or wide-angle sensors are now standard for high-end phones.
OLED screen will become the mainstream of 5g mobile phones. Hard screen is common in middle end market, and flexible screen is popular in high-end market. From the perspective of design trends, there are two major trends: first, mobile phones will maintain larger screens in the form of notch displays trend or punching. The larger screen proportion of smart phones is a mainstream direction, and the medium and low-end mobile phone market will be dominated in 2020; second, the high-end market focuses on two directions, one is folding screen, the other is fingerprint under screen. The P40 series of high-end smart phones released by Huawei in the first half of 2020 will be equipped with flexible OLED panels. In addition, it is said in the market that the new folding smart phones launched by Huawei in the second half of 2020 will adopt Samsung folding mobile phone panels.
AR, VR, cloud games and 4K video applications in 5g era put forward more requirements for storage. The transmission speed and capacity requirements of 5g mobile phones have been improved. In terms of embedded product interface, EMMC 5.1 has been unable to meet the basic transmission requirements of 5g era. Coupled with price incentives, UFS 2.1 / 3.0 is expected to accelerate penetration in 2020, and mobile phone 6GB + 128GB will become the mainstream.
2. Wearable devices are expected to become "independent" entrances and complement the closed loop of intelligent experience
Smart watches will remain the leading wearable device product in 2020. Among them, children's watch is the biggest growth point. Some analysis shows that the sales volume of children's smart watches will exceed 50 million pieces by 2020. If the average price of 350 yuan / piece is calculated, the market size will exceed 17.5 billion yuan, with huge development space. 5g and AI will boost the smart watch into a new computing center: equipped with more abundant sensors, cooperating with AI deep learning engine, analyzing wearer's more dimensional data, and bringing better sports and health management experience.
Functions / configurations that are becoming standard include: voice assistant, heart rate monitoring, GPS positioning, Wi Fi / cellular network support, NFC, OLED / AMOLED display, etc. in addition, local security protection, endurance time, storage space, processing capacity of main chip, various low-power technologies, and improvement of sensor volume / accuracy need to be continuously upgraded and optimized.
In addition to the smart watch, wearable medical devices are another key direction, especially in some chronic diseases or diseases requiring continuous tracking detection. In recent years, the medical wearable device market has developed rapidly. In 2015, the market scale was just over 1.2 billion, and it has increased to 7.1 billion by 2018, with an increase of 6 times. Experts predict that in 2020, domestic medical wearable devices are expected to break through 12.2 billion yuan, achieving a 10 fold growth in five years.
3. TWS earphones: entering the period of explosive shipment
In 2019, with the maturity of TWS earphone from chip to module OEM, and then to the improvement of market acceptance, a perfect industrial ecology has gradually formed. It brings huge market space for Bluetooth SOC, power management chip, nor flash, audio decoding IC, MEMS microphone, sensor and other related chips.
According to the survey of electronic enthusiast network, TWS headset is composed of brand market and white brand market, and the ratio of brand to white brand is about 1:2. In 2019, the brand shipment volume of TWS headphones will reach 75 million pairs, and it is estimated that the shipment volume will reach 120 million pairs in 2020.
As Apple's latest TWS headphones add ANC active noise reduction function, many manufacturers have launched active noise reduction solutions, and will continue to optimize the experience brought about by this technology. We believe that ANC will penetrate from high-end TWS headphones, and this new feature will be an important highlight of TWS headphones next year.
After TWS headset has experienced from scratch to large volume, its products will integrate more functions, which puts forward new requirements for sensors, intelligent voice, low-power design, etc. The Bluetooth SOC, the main control chip of TWS headset, adapts to the updating and upgrading of Bluetooth version. It is worth looking forward to how the future Bluetooth 6.0 will improve the experience of TWS headset with low power consumption and audio transmission. In addition, offline voice may enrich the functional experience of TWS headset. In short, these will bring new business opportunities to semiconductor manufacturers.
4. Etc is still worth looking forward to in 2020
In 2019, the electronic industry as a whole is in a low ebb, but there are two segments of the market rising against the market, which are extremely hot: TWS and etc. The multiplication of etc users is mainly driven by policy factors. On May 28, 2019, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of communications jointly issued a document, requiring the number of etc users to reach 180 million by the end of 2019.
Of course, although the explosive growth of the product is really large, it also encountered many problems. For example, some time ago, the media reported that car owners encountered the problem of arbitrary deduction of fees; due to the stability of etc, a large number of vehicles were blocked in the etc channel; there was a single application scenario, etc
In 2020, it is believed that etc will continue to grow due to policy reasons; in addition, after more than a year of market testing, the stability of its products will be better. As the service life of etc products is generally 3-5 years, there will be many users of product updates.
Therefore, < e-enthusiast > predicts that with the implementation of etc nationwide networking, application scenario expansion, free installation of vehicle equipment and preferential toll, etc., the etc market in 2020 is still worth looking forward to.
5. AR / VR may have a turning point in 2020
Although AR / VR is a new product form, when Google launched Google glass's ar glasses in 2012, it was highly favored by the market, and reached the peak of market heat around 2015. However, the market attention has been declining since then. Since the second half of 2016, the whole industry has entered a cold winter. In 2019, the performance of AR / VR is still not good. It can be said that the industry is still in the cold winter in 2019.
In 2019, although there are many players launched, there are still many players who still insist. HTC, which gambles on VR, is still struggling. Facebook claims that its new product oculus quest can't keep up with the demand, with a sales volume of about 400000 units in 19q3; 3glasses launched ultra-thin VR glasses in April 2019; subsequently, oppo and Huawei also launched consumer grade lightweight VR products in the quarter of 19q4
In terms of main chips, chip manufacturer Qualcomm updated its second generation snapdragon XR platform at the technology summit at the end of 2019. XR refers to a hybrid platform in multiple fields including VR, AR and Mr. Previously, oculus quest, HTC vive focus and other VR all-in-one machines have adopted the first generation of XRS from Qualcomm. At present, more than 30 VR / AR devices on the market have adopted the first generation XR platform of Qualcomm.
With the advent of 5g era, AR / VR industry in the cold winter is expected to start to warm up. In the past, limited by broadband and hardware conditions, the experience of AR / VR products in many scenarios was not ideal. However, as 5g networks with high bandwidth and low latency begin to enter people's lives, it can not only greatly improve the game experience of AR / VR, but also bring them into more application industries such as education, medical treatment, industry and so on.
Optimistic forecast, the AR / VR industry in 2020 is expected to come out of the cold winter and usher in spring.
6. AI landing: multimodal interaction is increasingly integrated and aiot continues to penetrate
With the breakthrough of large-scale computing power, rich domain data, pre training model, perfect development platform, stronger storage capacity, and algorithm fusion and alignment of multi-dimensional data, multimodal interaction will continue to innovate intelligent human-computer interaction experience.
Another significant trend is the rise of edge computing, which will promote the deepening combination of AI and IOT, and continue to penetrate in various vertical fields. This will be a year when giants continue to be busy building ecosystems, and start-ups will continue to seek algorithmic breakthroughs and business cooperation. All kinds of AI chips that broke out in 2019 will be launched in scale this year. The end-to-side chips will be low-cost, universal and integrated. Neural network units will be more popular in end-to-side processors. Traditional processor platforms will continue to optimize with deep learning as the core. It is worth mentioning that the easy-to-use and perfect AI development kits and software tools will play an increasingly important role. AI will be more and more used in the development process itself, so that various data science, application software development and testing functions can be automated, and professional application software development faces new opportunities.
7. Internet of things hot application strong landing
Intelligent voice entrance of Internet of things in the future. With the implementation of artificial intelligence technology, Internet giants such as Google, Amazon, Jingdong and Baidu are all competing to make layout in the consumption of IOT, and have launched smart speakers in succession. TWS Bluetooth headset + smart speaker is expected to open the intelligent interactive entrance. The smart speaker has always been regarded as the smart home entrance. In the family scene, TWS headset can be used as the auxiliary entrance of voice interaction, forming a closed loop of smart speaker + TWS headset entrance.
With the acceleration of 5g construction in China, the number of 5g base stations in China will reach 130000 in 2019, and it is estimated that more than 400000 5g base stations will be deployed in China in 2020. In November 2019, the three major operators launched 5g business package, and Nb IOT he Lora and other technologies continued to penetrate into the application field of fire protection and intelligent water meter. The maturity of 5g communication technology, bottom layer perception technology of Internet of things and industrial ecology greatly promoted the application and landing of IOT downstream.
At present, 60% of Internet of things connections need narrow-band Internet of things services, while medium and low-speed Internet of things devices need CAT1 or EMTC network to provide services. At present, China's cellular Internet of things industrial ecology, narrow-band business and high-speed business have mature network and industrial ecology. The medium and low-speed Internet of things network and related industrial ecology accounting for 30% are still blank. It is necessary to develop CAT1 network to supplement It is of great significance to make up for the fault and realize the smooth evolution of cellular IOT applications. At present, the manufacturers of LTE cat 1 chip are Qualcomm, Ziguang zhanrui, Aojie technology, etc.
Edge computing helps IOT applications land. Edge computing has three characteristics: economy, reliability and data protection. By driving machine learning and real-time distribution, IOT becomes the front-end of big data and intelligent network in real sense quotient. In many Internet of things vertical business, the demand for edge computing is mainly reflected in three aspects: delay, bandwidth and security. At present, the vertical fields such as Internet of vehicles, live games, 4K / VR, intelligent manufacturing and smart city have the most urgent requirements for edge computing.
With the rapid development of IOT market, data security and access security are also imminent. There is a general consensus in the industry that the security of the Internet of things can not be realized only through software, and the hardware level security measures are concerned, especially for applications that handle particularly sensitive data. Industrial Internet of things users are particularly concerned about security issues. In 2020, more chip manufacturers will enter the security field to help customers improve the safety experience of Internet of things terminal products.
8. BLDC motor market will grow steadily
From the popularity of two BLDC motor technology seminars held by electronic enthusiasts in 2019, we can see how popular BLDC motors are in the market in recent years.
In addition to industrial applications, BLDC motors also have a large shipment volume in the fields of fans, pumps, electric vehicles, electric tools, compressors, agricultural machinery and automotive applications.
Take the motor for air conditioning as an example. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in 2018, the output of motor for air conditioning in China is 360 million, while the output of BLDC motor for air conditioning is about 96 million. Although the proportion is small, it is growing every year. Moreover, it is likely to exceed 100 million in 2019, as it has reached 80 million in the first three quarters. It is believed that this number will increase in 2020.
Therefore, we have reason to believe that the BLDC motor market will continue to grow steadily in 2020.
9. Server: the overlord is hard to shake, but there are many opportunities
The pattern of x86 architecture dominating the server market for a long time will not change in the short term, and Intel's share of more than 90% of the data center server market will not change in the short term. The increasing amount of data is still driving the high growth of server demand, cloud storage will have an impact on the consumption of servers.
In 2019, amd released a new generation of server chips, surpassing Intel for the first time in the process, which also brings revolutionary changes in performance, architecture and cost. Although it is difficult to shake the dominance of Intel, the competition between the two main players of X86 server chip is more intense. In the non x86 architecture camp, server chips including arm, IBM power and other architectures are also catching up.
For example, Loongson adopts MIPS architecture, Feiteng adopts arm architecture, and Shenwei adopts alpha architecture. Huawei released Kunpeng 920 server chip this year and launched three servers. With the development and maturity of 5g, edge computing, artificial intelligence and other technologies, the emergence of new computing requirements is an important opportunity for the development of domestic server chips.
Servers will also bring the growth of storage market, and the generation of massive data will be filled by the increasing storage demand. Although the server market is not like the outbreak of consumer electronic products, it will still be developed in the competition. At the same time, with the emergence of new technologies and applications, new opportunities and market changes will be brought.
10. Internet of vehicles: a key link in creating automatic driving
There is a bipolar phenomenon in the automotive sector. First, as of November 2019, the sales volume of China's automobile market has been declining for 17 consecutive months. However, the "cold current" of automobiles has not stopped and may continue in 2020. Another phenomenon is the accelerated arrival of automotive electronics. It should be noted that despite the overall decline in car sales, new energy vehicles are doing well. New energy vehicles are semiconductor devices, and the demand is doubled. That's why many semiconductor manufacturers, which have previously focused on consumer electronics, are moving into the automotive electronics market.
Intelligent driving is another development characteristic of automobile industry besides automobile electrification. Intelligent driving can help solve the core problems of electric vehicle charging, energy saving, and realize the intelligent interaction of electric vehicle. Among the four levels of intelligent driving, the first three are dominated by ADAS, sensing the surrounding environment through sensors such as radar and camera. With the upgrading of automobile intelligence, the role of Internet of vehicles will play a greater role. 5g + c-v2x vehicle communication technology, through high-speed, low delay 5g mobile communication, and vehicle road collaborative c-v2x, realize the rapid networking of vehicles, high-performance data processing, make the vehicle, road, network intelligent, adapt to the high-level requirements of intelligent driving, especially for L4 level performance improvement and commercialization will bring great help.
